Russia has increased the export of wheat flour by almost one and a half times -

Russia has increased the export of wheat flour by almost one and a half times

The leading importer remains China.

Russia has increased the export of wheat flour by almost one and a half times

According to the commodity nomenclature of foreign trade activities of the Unified Energy System of the UES, wheat and wheat-rye flour are vegetable products and are included in Section II of the All-Russian Classifier. In group 11 of this section - products of the milling industry, gluten, etc.
At the same time, the Classifier used in customs clearance of the export of products contains the following codes of the leading exported goods from Section II:
• Durum wheat flour - 1101 00 110 0;
• Wheat-rye flour - 1101 00 900 0;
• Flour from spelled and soft wheat varieties - 1101 00 150 0.
Over the past three years, the volume of foreign trade in flour has been relatively stable, with growth showing in 2019. During this period, the Russian Federation exported 768.05 thousand tons of wheat and wheat-rye flour in the amount of $ 234.93 million. At the same time, an increase in the value of wheat flour exports in value in 2019 amounted to 47.3% compared to 2018.

Where does the flour of the Russian Federation supply?
In 2019, the geography of exports has changed significantly, but China remains the key importer. The share of the Celestial Empire in the entire export of flour (by value) is about half (45.29%), by weight - 44.94%. The second and third places in the top three importers were Belarus (9.0% and 10.38%, respectively) and Abkhazia (7.71% and 8.39%).
According to statistics, in the top 5 states-buyers of the Russian product (TNVED code 110100) are included in 2019:
• Armenia with a purchase volume of $ 13.71 million (in physical terms - 58.68 thousand tons);
• Hong Kong, which purchased 53.27 thousand tons of wheat flour (total - $ 12.47 million).

For the previous 2018, China imported 104.8 thousand tons of wheat and wheat-rye flour in the amount of $ 28.41 million, or 41.2% of the total export of the product. 75.3 tons less - 11.5% of exports (29.5 thousand tons worth $ 6.31 million) were imported by Hong Kong, Russia exported flour to the amount of $ 5.02 million to Armenia, in volume - 23, 5 thousand tons (9.2%). By the way, cereals occupy the fifth position in the commodity structure of Russian exports to Armenia - details are here.
Dynamics of international flour trade in 2019 by months
According to customs, in 2019, the trend of a monthly change in the demand for wheat flour from importing countries remains. Seasonal consumption is characterized by:
· Growth in demand in the winter months - January, February, December (total - $ 30.88 million).
· Stabilization of purchases from September to November (9.12; 9.94 and 8.29 million dollars, respectively). In July, importers purchased $ 8.47 million worth of flour;
· Some decrease in demand in the warm season (May - 6.2; June - 6.87; August - 5.54 million dollars).
The seasonality of concluding FEA contracts is explained by the demand for bakery products: in the summer, vegetables and fruits are mainly consumed, and in winter, more high-calorie foods.
How flour prices changed in 2017 - 2019
The cost of Russian flour on the world market is quite competitive and, in comparison with the key exporter, Turkey, is ≈ 5–10% lower (depending on the importer).
During 2017–2019 the dynamics of average weighted prices shows a slight upward trend:
2017 - 320 USD / ton;
2018 - 270 USD / ton;
· 2019 - 330 USD / ton.
It is impossible to stay on the flour market at one price only; it is one of the criteria determining the competitiveness of a product. More important factors are volumes of shipments, product quality and logistics.
Flour export structure by regions of the Russian Federation
Among the main regions of flour export, the leading ones in 2019 are the following:
• Novosibirsk Region, whose export in 2019 grew by $ 11.64 million (18.64 compared to $ 7 million in 2018);
• Moscow with an export volume of $ 15.4 million. Export grew by 58.6% compared to 2018;
• St. Petersburg, of which shipping amounted to $ 11.1 million. This is $ 1 million less than the export volume of 2018;
• Altai Territory, which shipped $ 10.33 million outside the Russian Federation, which is $ 2.57 million more than in 2018;
• The Stavropol Territory with export deliveries of $ 8.08 million versus $ 6.41 million in 2018. Volume growth - $ 1.67 million.

In the total volume of shipments, the share of exports from Moscow customs (by value) amounted to 14.47% (by weight - 10.99%). St. Petersburg exported flour, the volume of which by value amounted to 13.85% of the total shipment, and by weight - 17.88%. The share of the Novosibirsk Region by weight is 11.12%, by value - 12.26% of all exports. How many exporting companies are engaged in the supply of wheat flour abroad can be found in the updated list of participants of foreign trade activities of Russia updated for 2019.

In the near future, the positions of the leading exporters - Turkey, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, may be weakened in the world flour market. This is due to the fact that the importing countries establish their own processing and diversify imports. The Russian Federation and other countries of the post-Soviet space (Ukraine, Uzbekistan) can significantly strengthen their positions thanks to state support and the offer of lower competitive prices.

06.05.2020 12:29:04
(Automatic translation)


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