Results of the first quarter of the mortgage market -

Results of the first quarter of the mortgage market

Results of the first quarter of the mortgage market

The volume of issued mortgages in the I quarter has already reached a third of the total lending in 2017

According to the calculations of the experts of "Metrium", the volume of issued mortgages in the I quarter has already reached a third of the total amount of lending in 2017
As follows from the data published by the Central Bank, in the I quarter of 2018 the growth of the mortgage sector in Russia accelerated. According to estimates of the experts of the company "Metrium", the volume of loans issued during this period has already reached a third of the total amount of loans in 2017. The rates have updated the historical lows, which helped to revive the demand for new buildings in Russia. Nevertheless, Moscow is the leader in the number of deals, although the Moscow region is also showing rapid growth.

New demand records

In January-March 2018, the mortgage market indicators in Russia once again updated historical highs. In the first quarter, almost 300 thousand mortgage housing loans (MHC) were issued for a total of 582 billion rubles. The number of loans for the purchase of housing increased by 68%, and their monetary volume - by 81% compared to the same period in 2017, calculated in the "Metrium". The number of housing loans and their volume in the I quarter significantly exceeded the figures for the first quarter of the pre-crisis period in 2014, when 198 thousand loans were issued for a total of 333 billion rubles.

Analysts "Metrium" note that the best annual dynamics of the mortgage market indicators was recorded in January, which is usually considered the least active month in the residential property market. If in January 2017 Russian banks lent to citizens about 40 thousand loans in the amount of 71 billion rubles, in January 2018 their number increased to 78 thousand, and the volume - to 148 billion rubles. Thus, in annual terms, these figures grew by about two times.

Quality indicators are improving

The main incentive for solving the housing problem with the help of mortgages remains an attractive rate on the loan, believe in the "Metrium". As in the previous two years, it continues to decline, having reached the next historic low by 9.64% per annum. Meanwhile, a year ago the average loan would have cost the buyer of housing at 11.68% per annum, that is, for a year the mortgage has fallen in price by a little more than 2 percentage points. The average loan amount in this case for the I quarter increased by 80 thousand rubles and amounted to 1.98 million rubles. Experts "Metrium" recall that in March 2017, buyers of housing loans on average borrowed from banks by 160 thousand rubles less - about 1.82 million rubles. Thus, the reduction in mortgage rates not only contributes to an increase in the number of borrowers, but also helps to purchase more spacious or comfortable housing. Despite record volumes of lending, the quality of the mortgage portfolio of Russian banks improves. According to Dom.rf, the share of mortgage loans with overdue debts for more than 90 days fell to 2.11%. Meanwhile, a year ago this figure reached 2.52%.

The secondary market is ahead of the primary

As predicted by the experts of "Metrium", the reduction in mortgage rates and the elimination of differences between the conditions of lending to primary and secondary housing led to an accelerating growth in demand for finished objects. According to Dom.rf, in Q1 the volume of mortgage issuance in the primary market amounted to 178 billion rubles against 404 billion on the secondary market. Meanwhile, in the first quarter of 2017 on the security of participation rights in shared construction, 112 billion rubles were issued against 210 billion rubles in the market for finished housing. Thus, mortgage lending to buyers of "secondary housing" has almost doubled, and the volume of mortgages for the purchase of housing under construction increased by 58%.

Nevertheless, the average mortgage rate on the primary residential property market is still slightly lower than on the secondary market, they note in the "Metrium". According to Dom.rf, to buy ready-made housing, customers borrow from banks for 9.77% per annum, and to buy new buildings - at 9.54%.

At the same time, further lowering of rates helped to move the dynamics of demand for new buildings in Russia from a dead center. If in 2017 the number of concluded contracts of equity participation was not growing in the country, then in the first quarter of 2018 there was an increase in activity of buyers of housing under construction. According to Rosreestr, in January-March, 163 thousand DDU were registered, which is 11% more than in the same period last year (146 thousand DDU). Meanwhile, according to Dom.rf, the share of mortgages in the primary market of Russian housing has increased over the year by 10 pp. and accounted for 53% of all transactions with new buildings.

Moscow - the leader of mortgage demand

Most of all mortgage deals in the first quarter of 2018 were registered in Moscow. According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, nearly 18,000 MHCs were issued in the capital. According to this indicator, the capital outstripped all other developed housing markets of the country, experts say, "Metrium". Meanwhile, in the Moscow region 16 thousand transactions were fixed, in St. Petersburg - 15 thousand, in the Tyumen region - 13 thousand.

The amount of mortgage issued in January-March in Moscow is estimated at 73 billion rubles, which is 13% of all housing loans in Russia. Taking into account the Moscow region (49 billion rubles), the capital region in the I quarter formed 21% of the total mortgage lending of the whole country, counted in the "Metrium".

Despite the leadership of Moscow, the Moscow region housing market has demonstrated a more impressive growth dynamics. The number of mortgage deals concluded in the Moscow region in the I quarter of 2018 was 74% more than in the same period in 2017. Their volume in money terms for the same period increased by 90%. Meanwhile, in Moscow, the number of issued mortgages increased by 62%, and their volume - by 67%.

"The results of the first quarter of the mortgage market showed that the positive trends that have emerged in the sphere of housing lending last year have finally affected not only the most active regions, but also the whole country's industry," comments Natalia Kruglova, general director of the company "Metrium" ", A participant in the partner network CBRE. - First of all, it was manifested in the growth of lending to buyers of new buildings in Russia, although in 2017 there was no dynamism in this sector. In particular, this was manifested in very high rates of increase in the number and volume of housing in the Moscow region, which clearly lagged behind Moscow for the past two years.

Demand continues to concentrate on the housing market, but now the increase in buyers' activity is recorded in both segments, so there is no reason to talk about any kind of confrontation between them. Nevertheless, more recently, new risks have emerged for the development of the mortgage market, related to international sanctions and the instability of the domestic currency. These trends have already led to the suspension by the Central Bank of the reduction of the key rate. Nevertheless, I believe that by the end of the year the situation can be normalized, unless new unpleasant surprises follow. " "Despite the record rate of mortgage issuance in the Moscow region, which even exceeded the metropolitan rates, the effect of deferred demand will still be maintained at least until the end of 2018," commented Evgenia Akimova, CEO of IKON Development (developer of Zelenograd LCD). - This is evidenced at least by the fact that buyers immediately react to currency fluctuations by increasing their activity. For example, against the background of the weakening of the ruble in our project, demand increased by 15%. And among the clients were mainly those who originally planned to attract mortgage. Fearing the increase in the key rate, as happened in 2014, they decided to immediately conclude a deal, although many have postponed it for more than a year. I believe that in the coming months the Central Bank will show restraint in lowering the key rate due to inflation risks, which in turn activates the pent-up demand on the part of clients expecting further reduction of interest on mortgages. According to our estimates, this will contribute to an increase in demand, at least by 5-7%. "

"Mortgage lending is the main driver for the development of the real estate market in New Moscow," says Alexander Zubets, CEO of Novye Vatutinki. - If in the first quarter of 2017 the share of mortgage in the overall structure of TIANO transactions was 39%, then by the results of the first quarter of 2018 - it reached 56%. In quantitative terms, the number of mortgages for the same period increased by 2.2 times, while the DDU itself increased by 1.5 times. In my opinion, such a dynamic dynamics is facilitated not just by systematic reduction of the key rate, but also by new state programs. For example, in early 2018 our company concluded the first contracts with a subsidized rate of 6% for large families. According to our estimates, this program is potentially in demand for 70% of buyers. Therefore, 2018, I think, will be a record for the volume of issued mortgages. "

08.05.2018 06:02:06
(Automatic translation)

Natalia Kruglova

General Director of the company "Metrium"


Real estate and consulting company "Metrium"

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